More bad news (Avian bird flu)

I had first addressed this topic on November 12 of last year. At that time, there had been an outbreak of the HN51 in pigs. At the time, I said that it was a worrisome development. Not "time to run around and scream hysterically" worrisome, but  "uh...we need to keep an eye on this" worrisome.

There is now a report on Drudge saying that they found not a case of bird flu going from Human to Human, but several cases, including one where it went from human to human to human (two human to human infections, not just one).

Back in November, I had said:

"...Here is what we have to worry about. We are worried about a disease emerging which has several characteristics. First, it must be easily transmissible from human to human. Second, it must have a high morbidity and mortality Third, it must be unassailable by medicine. Fourth, it must have an adequate prodrome period. If these four factors all come together, then we have a 'doomsday' scenario. ..."

So, the four factors are:

1. Transmissibility (the ability to go from one infected patient to another


2. Virulence (Ability to do harm)


3. Resistence (perserverence in the face of medical intervention)


4. Prodrome (time to allow a well, infected carrier to infect others before detection in the host)

If this report is accurate, then it would appear that the first requirement has been met.

If this repoirt is accurate, and 6 of 7 cases have died, then the mortality is over 85%, which would certainly satisfy Requirement 2.

Requirement 3 cannot be evaluated by the report.  Requirement 4 is not met.

I say this because it appears that the infection spread from a single case to all the others during a very small time window right before apatient died from the virus. Some may argue that this is actually a case of requirement 1 being only minimally satisfied, and not a strong enough transmissibility to count as true transmission. I am uncertain of that. What we do know is that it is possible for the virus to spread from one human to another, even if only late in the progression of disease.

Another piece of the "Pandemic puzzle" has certainly fallen into place.

Now, don't panic! The fact of the matter is that this is really an isolated incident, and we cannot be certain of it's reproducability. Also, if the disease is only realistically transmissible when the carrier is on death's door, then as long as you don't come into contact with someone who is literally dying of the disease, then you should be safe.

Personally, I figure that along with hurricane season, this is probably as good a time as any to check my emergency preparations.

Respectfully Submitted,
-doc Russia